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Just 48 hours remaining.

England's first Test in Australia starts on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when data suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

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